Do we really have China over a barrel of iron ore? It is unlikely.

One thing Australian diplomats and politicians are missing, or else eliding, regarding China's approach, is the ponderous and generous nature of China's patience. China's economic coercion thus far has not included iron ore and other large export industries.

This cannot simply be because China has no choice. In fact. They have lots of choice, and Australian politicians and research analysts need to be honest about that.

Rather than being desperate, China's approach to economic coercion is more likely a hopeful, and very carefully calculated, shot across Australia's economic bow. Benjamin Herscovich of 'Beijing to Canberra and Back' thinks that China have been taken by surprise:

This is what philosophers call 'too quick'. Less quick take: Not really, Benjamin, no.

However, this is what philosophers call 'too quick'. Here's a Less quick take: Not really so sobering, Benjamin, no. China knew the score all along.

Let's deploy what philosophers call the principle of charity to a genius-level Han superpower, shall we? This means we should be more prone to give them the benefit of the doubt about their knowing what they are doing.

A rational assessment of China's economic coercive behaviour is telling. It is hardly likely that Chinese analysts were not aware that their current coercion would not seriously impact Australia's economy. Pretending that our resilience surprised them is probably dissimulative self-delusion at best, and serves only to support the nefarious ends of the US and its military industrial complex.

China clearly does not want to harm Australia unless absolutely necessary - even economically. They have ready access to other - cheaper - iron ore markets. Especially Russia:

Lobsters are a luxury item. No poor person will suffer from impact on that market. This is classic Xi thought.

China's rhetoric has been perhaps unfortunate, but it is hard to expect them to use very different discourse given the hard line 'surround and contain' badgering that they're constantly subjected to.

The severity of their conservative tone is part cultural and part due to necessity. Their actions on exports like iron ore are what really do the talking. But they do have good options. Thus we don't really have China over a barrel on trade and exports. Their coercion thus far can only be the soft but firm diplomacy of a shot over our economic bow.

Propaganda to the contrary is unwise, unfair, and misleading. It is a form of warmongering to push China into the arms of Russia - whom Xi has been measured and cautious about allying with. That's a very bad idea, and completely unnecessary.

If only the US would be reasonable and not so megacultist and warlike.

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